Evaluation of wet and dry event’s trend and instability based on the meteorological drought index

PeerJ

article

Muhammad Haroon Shaukat¹  Ahmad Al-Dousari²  Ijaz Hussain¹  Muhammad Faisal³  Muhammad Ismail⁵  Alaa Mohamd Shoukry⁶  Elsayed Elsherbini Elashkar⁸  Showkat Gani^1,10 

[1] Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University;Department of Geography, Kuwait University;Faculty of Health Studies, University of Bradford;Bradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust;Department of Statistics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus;Arriyadh Community College, King Saud University;KSA workers University;Administrative Sciences Department, Community College, King Saud University;Applied Statistics Department, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University;College of Business Administration, King Saud University

关键词: Drought;    Ensemble empirical mode decomposition;    Hilbert hung transformation;    Multi-resolution analysis;    Standardized precipitation index;    Wavelet transform;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.9729

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

A temporal imbalance in the water availability, which is consistently below average or more than average rainfall, can lead to extremely dry or wet conditions. This impacts on agricultural yields, water resources and human activities. Weather instabilities and trends of wet/dry events have not yet been explored in Pakistan. In this study, we have two-fold objectives: (1) evaluate the weather instabilities, and (2) the trend of dry/wet events of selected stations of Pakistan. To observe weather instabilities, we used Mean Marginal Hilbert Spectrum (MMHS) and Continuous Wavelet Power Spectrum (CWPS) as meteorological series are mostly non-linear and non-stationary. We used Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for the analysis of temporal characteristics of dry/wet events. We found that all stations are facing severe weather instabilities during the short period of 5 and 10 months using MMHS method and CWPS has shown the weather instabilities during 4 to 32 months of periodicity for all stations. Ultimately, the achieved short-term weather instabilities indicated by MMHS is consistent with CWPS. In summary, these findings might be useful for water resource management and policymakers.

【 授权许可】

CC BY