Estimating the impact of lock-down, quarantine and sensitization in a COVID-19 outbreak: lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak in China

PeerJ

article

Obiora C. Collins¹  Kevin J. Duffy¹ 

[1] Institute of Systems Science, Durban University of Technology

关键词: Disease dynamics;    Basic reproduction number;    COVID-19;    Disease control;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.9933

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

In recent history, COVID-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks currently affecting humanity globally. Using real data on the COVID-19 outbreak from 22 January 2020 to 30 March 2020, we developed a mathematical model to investigate the impact of control measures in reducing the spread of the disease. Analyses of the model were carried out to determine the dynamics. The results of the analyses reveal that, using the data from China, implementing all possible control measures best reduced the rate of secondary infections. However, quarantine (isolation) of infectious individuals is shown to have the most dominant effect. This possibility emphasizes the need for extensive testing due to the possible prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

【 授权许可】

CC BY