A model of population dynamics with complex household structure and mobility: implications for transmission and control of communicable diseases

PeerJ

article

Rebecca H. Chisholm¹  Bradley Crammond²  Yue Wu³  Asha C. Bowen³  Patricia T. Campbell²  Steven Y.C. Tong⁶  Jodie McVernon²  Nicholas Geard⁵ 

[1] Department of Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University;Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne;Wesfarmers Centre for Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute;Infectious Diseases Department, Perth Children’s Hospital;Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity;Doherty Department, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity;Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital;Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University;School of Computing and Information Systems, Melbourne School of Engineering, University of Melbourne

关键词: Mathematical modelling;    Infectious disease transmission;    Household model;    Human mobility;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.10203

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Households are known to be high-risk locations for the transmission of communicable diseases. Numerous modelling studies have demonstrated the important role of households in sustaining both communicable diseases outbreaks and endemic transmission, and as the focus for control efforts. However, these studies typically assume that households are associated with a single dwelling and have static membership. This assumption does not appropriately reflect households in some populations, such as those in remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, which can be distributed across more than one physical dwelling, leading to the occupancy of individual dwellings changing rapidly over time. In this study, we developed an individual-based model of an infectious disease outbreak in communities with demographic and household structure reflective of a remote Australian Aboriginal community. We used the model to compare the dynamics of unmitigated outbreaks, and outbreaks constrained by a household-focused prophylaxis intervention, in communities exhibiting fluid vs. stable dwelling occupancy. We found that fluid dwelling occupancy can lead to larger and faster outbreaks in modelled scenarios, and may interfere with the effectiveness of household-focused interventions. Our findings suggest that while short-term restrictions on movement between dwellings may be beneficial during outbreaks, in the longer-term, strategies focused on reducing household crowding may be a more effective way to reduce the risk of severe outbreaks occurring in populations with fluid dwelling occupancy.

【 授权许可】

CC BY