Increased infection severity in downstream cities in infectious disease transmission and tourists surveillance analysis

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:470

Article

Zhang, Nan¹  Zhao, Pengcheng¹  Li, Yuguo¹ 

[1] Univ Hong Kong, Dept Mech Engn, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

关键词: Infectious disease transmission;    Travel pattern;    SIR model;    Human mobility;    Severity increase percentage;    City;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.03.004

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Infectious disease severely threatens human life. Human mobility and travel patterns influence the spread of infection between cities and countries. We find that the infection severity in downstream cities during outbreaks is related to transmission rate, recovery rate, travel rate, travel duration and the average number of person-to-person contacts per day. The peak value of the infected population in downstream cities is slightly higher than that in source cities. However, as the number of cities increases, the severity increase percentage during outbreaks between end and source cities is constant. The surveillance of important nodes connecting cities, such as airports and train stations, can help delay the occurrence time of infection outbreaks. The city-entry surveillance of hub cities is not only useful to these cities, but also to cities that are strongly connected (i.e., have a high travel rate) to them. The city-exit surveillance of hub cities contributes to other downstream cities, but only slightly to itself. Surveillance conducted in hub cities is highly efficient in controlling infection transmission. Only strengthening the individual immunity of frequent travellers is not efficient for infection control. However, reducing the number of person-to-person contacts per day effectively limits the spread of infection. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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