A psychrometric model to assess the biological decay of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in aerosols

PeerJ

article

Clive B. Beggs¹  Eldad J. Avital² 

[1] Carnegie School of Sport, Leeds Beckett University;School of Engineering and Materials Science, Queen Mary University of London

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    Biological decay;    Aerosols;    Psychrometric model;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.11024

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

There is increasing evidence that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has been influenced by variations in air temperature and humidity. However, the impact that these environmental parameters have on survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has not been fully characterised. Therefore, an analytical study was undertaken using published data to develop a psychrometric model to assess the biological decay rate of the virus in aerosols. This revealed that it is possible to describe with reasonable accuracy (R2 = 0.718, p < 0.001) the biological decay constant for the SARS-CoV-2 virus using a regression model with enthalpy, vapour pressure and specific volume as predictors. Applying this to historical meteorological data from London, Paris and Milan over the pandemic period, produced results which indicate that the average half-life of the virus in aerosols outdoors was in the region 13–22 times longer in March 2020, when the outbreak was accelerating, than it was in August 2020 when epidemic in Europe was at its nadir. However, indoors, this variation is likely to be much less. As such, this suggests that changes in virus survivability due the variations in the psychrometric qualities of the air might influence the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

【 授权许可】

CC BY