Estimation of common percentile of rainfall datasets in Thailand using delta-lognormal distributions

PeerJ

article

Warisa Thangjai¹  Sa-Aat Niwitpong²  Suparat Niwitpong² 

[1] Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Ramkhamhaeng University;Department of Applied Statistics, Faculty of Applied Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok

关键词: Confidence intervals;    Common percentile;    Fiducial generalized confidence interval;    Adjusted method of variance estimates recovery;    Bayesian approaches;    Simulation;    Coverage probability;    Average lengths;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.14498

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Weighted percentiles in many areas can be used to investigate the overall trend in a particular context. In this article, the confidence intervals for the common percentile are constructed to estimate rainfall in Thailand. The confidence interval for the common percentile help to indicate intensity of rainfall. Herein, four new approaches for estimating confidence intervals for the common percentile of several delta-lognormal distributions are presented: the fiducial generalized confidence interval, the adjusted method of variance estimates recovery, and two Bayesian approaches using fiducial quantity and approximate fiducial distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the coverage probabilities and average lengths via the R statistical program. The proposed confidence intervals are compared in terms of their coverage probabilities and average lengths, and the results of a comparative study based on these metrics indicate that one of the Bayesian confidence intervals is better than the others. The efficacies of the approaches are also illustrated by applying them to daily rainfall datasets from various regions in Thailand.

【 授权许可】

CC BY