Bayesian computation for the common coefficient of variation of delta-lognormal distributions with application to common rainfall dispersion in Thailand

PeerJ

article

Noppadon Yosboonruang¹  Sa-Aat Niwitpong¹  Suparat Niwitpong¹ 

[1] Department of Applied Statistics, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok

关键词: Precipitation;    Common area;    Fiducial generalized confidence interval;    Jeffreys and uniform priors;    Method of variance estimates recovery;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.12858

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Rainfall fluctuation makes precipitation and flood prediction difficult. The coefficient of variation can be used to measure rainfall dispersion to produce information for predicting future rainfall, thereby mitigating future disasters. Rainfall data usually consist of positive and true zero values that correspond to a delta-lognormal distribution. Therefore, the coefficient of variation of delta-lognormal distribution is appropriate to measure the rainfall dispersion more than lognormal distribution. In particular, the measurement of the dispersion of precipitation from several areas can be determined by measuring the common coefficient of variation in the rainfall from those areas together. Herein, we compose confidence intervals for the common coefficient of variation of delta-lognormal distributions by employing the fiducial generalized confidence interval, equal-tailed Bayesian credible intervals incorporating the independent Jeffreys or uniform priors, and the method of variance estimates recovery. A combination of the coverage probabilities and expected lengths of the proposed methods obtained via a Monte Carlo simulation study were used to compare their performances. The results show that the equal-tailed Bayesian based on the independent Jeffreys prior was suitable. In addition, it can be used the equal-tailed Bayesian based on the uniform prior as an alternative. The efficacies of the proposed confidence intervals are demonstrated via applying them to analyze daily rainfall datasets from Nan, Thailand.

【 授权许可】

CC BY