COVID-19 induced birth sex ratio changes in England and Wales

PeerJ

article

Gwinyai Masukume¹  Margaret Ryan²  Rumbidzai Masukume³  Dorota Zammit⁴  Victor Grech⁵  Witness Mapanga⁶  Yosuke Inoue⁸ 

[1] Independent Researcher;Trinity College Dublin;Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand;National Statistics Office;Academic Department of Paediatrics, Medical School, Mater Dei Hospital;Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand;Noncommunicable Diseases Research Division, Wits Health Consortium ,(PTY) Ltd;Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine

关键词: Sex ratio at birth;    Population stressor;    COVID-19;    Lockdown;    England;    Wales;    Sexual intercourse;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.14618

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe sex ratio at birth (male live births divided by total live births) may be a sentinel health indicator. Stressful events reduce this ratio 3–5 months later by increasing male fetal loss. This ratio can also change 9 months after major population events that are linked to an increase or decrease in the frequency of sexual intercourse at the population level, with the ratio either rising or falling respectively after the event. We postulated that the COVID-19 pandemic may have affected the ratio in England and Wales.MethodsPublicly available, monthly live birth data for England and Wales was obtained from the Office for National Statistics up to December 2020. Using time series analysis, the sex ratio at birth for 2020 (global COVID-19 onset) was predicted using data from 2012–2019. Observed and predicted values were compared.ResultsFrom 2012–2020 there were 3,133,915 male and 2,974,115 female live births (ratio 0.5131). Three months after COVID-19 was declared pandemic (March 2020), there was a significant fall in the sex ratio at birth to 0.5100 in June 2020 which was below the 95% prediction interval of 0.5102–0.5179. Nine months after the pandemic declaration, (December 2020), there was a significant rise to 0.5171 (95% prediction interval 0.5085–0.5162). However, December 2020 had the lowest number of live births of any month from 2012–2020.ConclusionsGiven that June 2020 falls within the crucial window when population stressors are known to affect the sex ratio at birth, these findings imply that the start of the COVID-19 pandemic caused population stress with notable effects on those who were already pregnant by causing a disproportionate loss of male fetuses. The finding of a higher sex ratio at birth in December 2020, i.e., 9 months after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, could have resulted from the lockdown restrictions that initially spurred more sexual activity in a subset of the population in March 2020.

【 授权许可】

CC BY