Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution and niche dynamics of Gastrodia elata

PeerJ

article

Yehong Wang¹  Tao Tan²  Zhigang Hu³  Yifei Liu³  Juan Hu³  Ying Feng³  Haotian Zhong³  Wei Liu³  Xufang Tian³ 

[1] Wufeng Tujia Autonomous County Agricultural Science and Technology Demonstration Center;Wufeng Tujia Autonomous County Herbal Medicine Development Center;College of Pharmacy, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine

关键词: Gastrodia elata;    Climate change;    Highly suitable area;    Ecological niche;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.15741

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundGastrodia elata is widely used in China as a valuable herbal medicine. Owing to its high medicinal and nutrient value, wild resources of G. elata have been overexploited and its native areas have been severely damaged. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of this endangered species is important for the conservation and sustainable use of G. elata.MethodsWe used the optimized maximum entropy model to simulate the potential distribution of G. elata under contemporary and future time periods (1970–2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Under these conditions, we investigated the key environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata as well as the spatial and temporal characteristics of its niche dynamics.ResultsWith high Maxent model accuracy (AUCmean = 0.947 ± 0.012, and the Kappa value is 0.817), our analysis revealed that annual precipitation, altitude, and mean temperature of driest quarter are the most important environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata. Under current bioclimatic conditions, the potentially suitable area for G. elata in China is 71.98 × 104 km2, while the highly suitable region for G. elata growth is 7.28 × 104 km2. Our models for three future periods under four climate change scenarios indicate that G. elata can maintain stable distributions in southern Shaanxi, southwestern Hubei, and around the Sichuan basin, as these areas are highly suitable for its growth. However, the center of the highly suitable areas of G. elata shift depending on different climatic scenarios. The values of niche overlap for G. elata show a decreasing trend over the forecasted periods, of which the niche overlap under the SSP3-7.0 scenario shows the greatest decrease.DiscussionsUnder the condition of global climate change in the future, our study provides basic reference data for the conservation and sustainable utilization of the valuable and endangered medicinal plant G. elata. It is important to carefully choose the protection area of G. elata wild resources according the suitable area conditions modeled. Moreover, these findings will be valuable for providing insights into the breeding and artificial cultivation of this plant, including the selection of suitable areas for planting.

【 授权许可】

CC BY