The role of global reanalyses in climate services for health: Insights from the Lancet Countdown

Meteorological applications

article

Martin Lotto Batista¹  Rachel Lowe¹  Kris A. Murray⁴  Fereidoon Owfi⁶  Mahnaz Rabbaniha⁶  Liuhua Shi⁷  Mikhail Sofiev⁸  Meisam Tabatabaei⁹  Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson^1,11  Claudia Di Napoli^1,12  Marina Romanello^1,14  Kelton Minor^1,15  Jonathan Chambers^1,16  Shouro Dasgupta^1,17  Luis E. Escobar^1,18  Yun Hang⁷  Risto Hänninen⁸  Yang Liu⁷ 

[1] Barcelona Supercomputing Center;Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research;Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies;Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London;MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agriculture Research;Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University;Finnish Meteorological Institute;Higher Institution Centre of Excellence ,(HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries ,(AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu;Department of Biomaterials, Saveetha Dental College, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences;Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science;School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading;Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading;Institute for Global Health, University College London;Data Science Institute, Columbia University;Institute for Environmental Science, University of Geneva;Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change;Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation

关键词: climate services;    health;    impact modelling;    indicators;    preparedness;    reanalyses;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.2122

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

As the linkages between extreme weather events, changes in climatic conditions and health impacts in exposed populations become clearer, so does the need for climate-smart decisions aimed at making the public health sector more responsive and resilient. By integrating climate and health information, climate services for health provide robust decision-support tools. The Lancet Countdown monitoring system uses global climate reanalyses products to track annual changes in a set of health-related outcomes. In the monitoring system, multiple variables from reanalysis datasets such as ERA5 and ERA5-Land are retrieved and processed to capture heatwaves, precipitation extremes, wildfires, droughts, warming and ecosystem changes across the globe and over multiple decades. This reanalysis-derived information is then input into a hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework that delivers, as outcomes, indicators tracking the year-by-year impacts of climate-related hazards on human mortality, labour capacity, physical activity, sentiment, infectious disease transmission, and food security and undernutrition. Building on the reanalysis gridded format, the indicators create worldwide ‘maps without gaps’ of climate–health linkages. Our experience shows that reanalysis datasets allow standardization across the climate information used in the framework, making the system potentially adaptable to multiple geographical scales. An ongoing challenge is to quantify how the inherent bias of global reanalyses influences indicator outcomes. We foresee the health sector as a key user of reanalysis products. Therefore, public health professionals and health impact modellers should be involved in the co-development of future iterations of reanalysis datasets, to reach finer spatial resolutions and provide a wider set of health-relevant climate variables.

【 授权许可】

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