Real-time assessment of COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong Province, China using mathematical models

Journal of Thoracic Disease

article

Zhiqi Zeng¹  Wei Qu¹  Ruibin Liu⁴  Wenda Guan¹  Jingyi Liang¹  Zhijie Lin⁴  Eric H. Y. Lau⁵  Chitin Hon⁴  Zifeng Yang¹  Jianxing He¹ 

[1]State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University

[2]Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Clinical Rapid Diagnosis and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases, KingMed School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University

[3]College of Sciences, China Jiliang University

[4]Macao Institute of Systems Engineering, Macao University of Science and Technology

[5]School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong

[6]Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health

[7]Guangzhou Laboratory

关键词: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19);    susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR);    prediction;    potential risks;   

DOI  :  10.21037/jtd-23-47

学科分类：呼吸医学

来源: Pioneer Bioscience Publishing Company

【 摘 要 】

China government has relaxed the response measures of COVID-19 in early December 2022. In this report, we assessed the number of infections, the number of severe cases based on the current epidemic trend (October 22, 2022 to November 30, 2022) using a transmission dynamics model, called modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) to provide valuable information to ensure the medical operation of the healthcare system under the new situation. Our model showed that the present outbreak in Guangdong Province peaked during December 21, 2022 to December 25, 2022 with about 14.98 million new infections (95% CI: 14.23–15.73 million). The cumulative number of infections will reach about 70% of the province’s population from December 24, 2022 to December 26, 2022. The number of existing severe cases is expected to peak during January 1, 2023 to January 5, 2023 with a peak number of approximately 101.45 thousand (95% CI: 96.38–106.52 thousand). In addition, the epidemic in Guangzhou which is the capital city of Guangdong Province is expected to have peaked around December 22, 2022 to December 23, 2022 with the number of new infections at the peak being about 2.45 million (95% CI: 2.33–2.57 million). The cumulative number of infected people will reach about 70% of the city's population from December 24, 2022 to December 25, 2022 and the number of existing severe cases is expected to peak around January 4, 2023 to January 6, 2023 with the number of existing severe cases at the peak being about 6.32 thousand (95% CI: 6.00–6.64 thousand). Predicted results enable the government to prepare medically and plan for potential risks in advance.

【 授权许可】

Unknown