A Multi-Species Simulation of Mosquito Disease Vector Development in Temperate Australian Tidal Wetlands Using Publicly Available Data

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease

article

Kerry Staples¹  Steven Richardson²  Peter J. Neville¹  Jacques Oosthuizen¹ 

[1] Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Edith Cowan University;School of Science, Edith Cowan University;Biological and Applied Environmental Health, Environmental Health Directorate, Department of Health

关键词: mathematical modelling;    larval mosquito development;    vector modelling;    temperature-dependent development;    Aedes camptorhynchus;    Aedes vigilax;    Culex annulirostris;   

DOI  :  10.3390/tropicalmed8040215

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Worldwide, mosquito monitoring and control programs consume large amounts of resources in the effort to minimise mosquito-borne disease incidence. On-site larval monitoring is highly effective but time consuming. A number of mechanistic models of mosquito development have been developed to reduce the reliance on larval monitoring, but none for Ross River virus, the most commonly occurring mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This research modifies existing mechanistic models for malaria vectors and applies it to a wetland field site in Southwest, Western Australia. Environmental monitoring data were applied to an enzyme kinetic model of larval mosquito development to simulate timing of adult emergence and relative population abundance of three mosquito vectors of the Ross River virus for the period of 2018–2020. The model results were compared with field measured adult mosquitoes trapped using carbon dioxide light traps. The model showed different patterns of emergence for the three mosquito species, capturing inter-seasonal and inter-year variation, and correlated well with field adult trapping data. The model provides a useful tool to investigate the effects of different weather and environmental variables on larval and adult mosquito development and can be used to investigate the possible effects of changes to short-term and long-term sea level and climate changes.

【 授权许可】

CC BY