The Potential of Surveillance Data for Dengue Risk Mapping: An Evaluation of Different Approaches in Cuba

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease

article

Waldemar Baldoquín Rodríguez¹  Mayelin Mirabal²  Patrick Van der Stuyft³  Tania Gómez Padrón⁴  Viviana Fonseca⁴  Rosa María Castillo⁵  Sonia Monteagudo Díaz⁴  Jan M. Baetens⁶  Bernard De Baets⁶  Maria Eugenia Toledo Romaní¹  Veerle Vanlerberghe⁷ 

[1] Epidemiology Department, “Pedro Kourí” Institute of Tropical Medicine;Unidad de Información y Biblioteca, Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México;Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Ghent University;Centro Provincial de Higiene Epidemiología y Microbiología, Dirección Provincial de Salud;Unidad Provincial de Vigilancia y Lucha Antivectorial, Dirección Provincial de Salud;KERMIT, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University;Public Health Department, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nationalestraat 155

关键词: dengue;    arbovirus;    Aedes;    epidemiology;    prevention;    stratification;    risk mapping;    Cuba;   

DOI  :  10.3390/tropicalmed8040230

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

0.89). The single-component and multicomponent incidence-based models were also highly correlated (tau ≥ 0.9). However, the agreement between the vulnerability- and the incidence-based risk maps was below 0.6 in the setting with a prolonged history of dengue transmission. This may suggest that an incidence-based approach does not fully reflect the complexity of vulnerability for future transmission. The small difference between single- and multicomponent incidence maps indicates that in a setting with a narrow availability of data, simpler models can be used. Nevertheless, the generalized linear mixed multicomponent model provides information of covariate-adjusted and spatially smoothed relative risks of disease transmission, which can be important for the prospective evaluation of an intervention strategy. In conclusion, caution is needed when interpreting risk maps, as the results vary depending on the importance given to the components involved in disease transmission. The multicomponent vulnerability mapping needs to be prospectively validated based on an intervention trial targeting high-risk areas.

【 授权许可】

CC BY