Gazing through the bubble: an experimental investigation into financial risk-taking using eye-tracking

Financial Innovation

Research

Matei Nicolae Kubinschi¹  Cosmin-Octavian Cepoi²  Filip-Mihai Toma³  Makoto Miyakoshi⁴ 

[1] Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Mihail Moxa Road, No. 11, 010964, Bucharest, Romania;Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Mihail Moxa Road, No. 11, 010964, Bucharest, Romania;CEFIMO – Center of Financial and Monetary Research, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania;NEXARCH Lab, Bucharest, Romania;California Institute of Technology, 1200 E California Blvd, 91125, Pasadena, CA, USA;Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Mihail Moxa Road, No. 11, 010964, Bucharest, Romania;Swartz Center for Computational Neuroscience, Institute for Neural Computation, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, 92093-0559, La Jolla, CA, USA;

关键词: Financial bubble;    Experiment;    Risk-taking;    Eye-tracking;    Attention;    Arousal;    G10;    G40;    G41;    D87;    D91;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40854-022-00444-4

 received in 2022-06-21, accepted in 2022-12-22,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Eye tracking can facilitate understanding irrational decision-making in contexts such as financial risk-taking. For this purpose, we develop an experimental framework in which participants trade a risky asset in a simulated bubble market to maximize individual returns while their eye movements are recorded. Returns are sensitive to eye movement dynamics, depending on the presented visual stimuli. Using eye-tracking data, we investigated the effects of arousal, attention, and disengagement on individual payoffs using linear and nonlinear approaches. By estimating a nonlinear model using attention as a threshold variable, our results suggest that arousal positively influences trading returns, but its effect becomes smaller when attention exceeds a certain threshold, whereas disengagement has a higher negative impact on reduced attention levels and becomes almost irrelevant when attention increases. Hence, we provide a neurobehavioral metric as a function of attention that predicts financial gains in boom-and-bust scenarios. This study serves as a proof-of-concept for developing future psychometric measures to enhance decision-making.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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