Future of work in 2050: thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic

European Journal of Futures Research

Research Article

Luis Felipe Coimbra Costa¹  Alan Lyra¹  Matheus Argôlo¹  Yuri Oliveira de Lima¹  Herbert Salazar dos Santos¹  Jonathan Augusto da Silva¹  Jano Moreira de Souza¹  Carlos Eduardo Barbosa² 

[1]Program of Systems and Computer Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

[2]Program of Systems and Computer Engineering, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

[3]Centro de Análises de Sistemas Navais (CASNAV), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

关键词: Work;    Employment;    Social welfare;    Automation;    Future;    Foresight;    Technological change;    Technological unemployment;    Scenario;    COVID-19;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40309-022-00210-w

 received in 2022-05-18, accepted in 2022-11-08,  发布年份 2022

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Work has been continuously changing throughout history. The most severe changes to work occurred because of the industrial revolutions, and we are living in one of these moments. To allow us to address these changes as early as possible, mitigating important problems before they occur, we need to explore the future of work. As such, our purpose in this paper is to discuss the main global trends and provide a likely scenario for work in 2050 that takes into consideration the recent changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study was performed by thirteen researchers with different backgrounds divided into five topics that were analyzed individually using four future studies methods: Bibliometrics, Brainstorming, Futures Wheel, and Scenarios. As the study was done before COVID-19, seven researchers of the original group later updated the most likely scenario with new Bibliometrics and Brainstorming. Our findings include that computerization advances will further reduce the demand for low-skill and low-wage jobs; non-standard employment tends to be better regulated; new technologies will allow a transition to a personalized education process; workers will receive knowledge-intensive training, making them more adaptable to new types of jobs; self-employment and entrepreneurship will grow in the global labor market; and universal basic income would not reach its full potential, but income transfer programs will be implemented for the most vulnerable population. Finally, we highlight that this study explores the future of work in 2050 while considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2022

【 图 表 】

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