Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study

BMC Infectious Diseases

卷:23

Research Article

Alicia N. M. Kraay¹  Mary E. Wikswo²  Jacqueline E. Tate²  Sara A. Mirza²  Anita K. Kambhampati²  Brooke L. Lappe³  Ben A. Lopman⁴ 

[1] Department of Kinesiology and Community Health, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA;

[2] Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA;

[3] Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd, 30322, Atlanta, GA, USA;

[4] Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd, 30322, Atlanta, GA, USA;Epidemiology Department, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA;

关键词: Norovirus;    Rotavirus;    Transmission;    Seasonality;    Mathematical modelling;    Surveillance;    COVID-19;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-023-08224-w

 received in 2022-09-26, accepted in 2023-04-04,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTo reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed.MethodsWe fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels.ResultsWe found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection.ConclusionsThese results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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