Forecasting Import Demand of Table Grapes: Empirical Evidence from Thailand

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development

article

Chalermpon Jatuporn¹  Patana Sukprasert²  Siros Tongchure³  Vasu Suvanvihok¹  Supat Thongkaew⁴ 

[1] School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University;Faculty of Agriculture, Kasetsart University;Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Chandrakasem Ratchabhat University;Crop Integration Business, C. P. Group

关键词: Box-Jenkins;    Seasonal forecasting;    Table grape;   

DOI  :  10.18488/journal.ajard.2020.102.578.586

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Asian Economic and Social Society

【 摘 要 】

The purpose of this study is to forecast the import demand of table grapes of Thailand using monthly time series from January 2007 to April 2020. The ADF unit root test is used for stationarity checking, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) is applied to forecast the import demand of table grapes. The results revealed that the integration of time series was in the first difference for non-seasonal and seasonal order. The best-fitted forecasting model was SARIMA(1,1,3)(2,1,0)12. The forecasted period for the next eight months showed the import demand of table grapes of Thailand that is slightly decreased by an average of 11.398 percent, with overall expected to decrease by an average of 15.218 percent in 2020.

【 授权许可】

CC BY