Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Probability of Breast Cancer Pathologic Complete Response after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Frontiers in Surgery

article

Yijun Li¹  Jian Zhang¹  Bin Wang¹  Huimin Zhang¹  Jianjun He¹  Ke Wang¹ 

[1] Department of Breast Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University

关键词: breast cancer;    neoadjuvant chemotherapy;    nomogram;    clinical cancer research;    pathologic complete response;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fsurg.2022.878255

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Background The methods used to predict the pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) have some limitations. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict breast cancer pCR after NAC based on convenient and economical multi-system hematological indicators and clinical characteristics. Materials and Methods Patients diagnosed from July 2017 to July 2019 served as the training group ( N  = 114), and patients diagnosed in from July 2019 to July 2021 served as the validation group ( N  = 102). A nomogram was developed according to eight indices, including body mass index, platelet distribution width, monocyte count, albumin, cystatin C, phosphorus, hemoglobin, and D-dimer, which were determined by multivariate logistic regression. Internal and external validation curves are used to calibrate the nomogram. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.942 (95% confidence interval 0.892–0.992), and the concordance index indicated that the nomogram had good discrimination. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test and calibration curve showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion The nomogram developed in this study can help clinicians accurately predict the possibility of patients achieving the pCR after NAC. This information can be used to decide the most effective treatment strategies for patients.

【 授权许可】

CC BY