Stochastic Modelling: An Approach to Quantify the TransmissionIntensity of Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) in Maharashtra

Global Journal of Medicine and Public Health

关键词: Influenza;    reproduction number;    renewal process;    mathematical models;    Maharashtra;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In India, Maharashtra was one of the badly affected states during the influenza A/H1N1 2009 pandemic. We undertook the study to identify the disease dynamics and real time varying intensity of the strain in Maharashtra and to evaluate the internal heterogeneity under different epidemiological contours. Reproduction Number, the key epidemiological parameter, defined as average number of secondary infected individuals generated by a typical primary case in his/her entire infectious period, which being used to quantify the characteristic of the transmission intensity of pandemic. The aim of the paper is to estimate instantaneous reproduction number from daily case reported data considering the stochastic nature of generation time. We used the Kermack McKendrick transmission model (Time-Since-Infection model) applied to stochastic renewal process of disease outbreak. Our reliable estimate of reproduction number is 1.44 for the Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Maharashtra, comparatively higher than other part of India. Moreover, we examine that the effectiveness of interventions at the initial stage, and is found to have a significant role in reducing the contact rate, consequently the transmissibility.

【 授权许可】

Unknown