Kabul River Flow Prediction Using Automated ARIMA Forecasting: A Machine Learning Approach

Sustainability

Alishba Sadiq¹  Muhammad Babar Ali Rabbani²  Wesam Salah Alaloul³  Muhammad Altaf³  Mujahid Ali³  Waqas Rafiq³  Muhammad Ali Musarat³  Waqas Farooq⁴  Sergey Klyuev⁵  Nikolai Vatin⁶  Hamna Bukhari⁷  Roman Fediuk⁸ 

[1] Centre for Intelligent Signal and Imaging Research (CISIR), Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, University Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, Perak 32610, Malaysia;Department of Civil Engineering, Sarhad University of Science and Information Technology, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, Perak 32610, Malaysia;Department of Electrical Engineering, Sarhad University of Science and Information Technology, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan;Department of Theoretical Mechanics and Resistance of Materials, Belgorod State Technological University Named after V.G. Shukhov, 308012 Belgorod, Russia;Institute of Civil Engineering, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195291 St. Petersburg, Russia;National Institute of Transport, NIT-SCEE, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan;Polytechnic Institute, Far Eastern Federal University, 690000 Vladivostok, Russia;

关键词: ARIMA;    Kabul River;    machine learning;    floods;    droughts;    forecasting;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su131910720

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The water level in a river defines the nature of flow and is fundamental to flood analysis. Extreme fluctuation in water levels in rivers, such as floods and droughts, are catastrophic in every manner; therefore, forecasting at an early stage would prevent possible disasters and relief efforts could be set up on time. This study aims to digitally model the water level in the Kabul River to prevent and alleviate the effects of any change in water level in this river downstream. This study used a machine learning tool known as the automatic autoregressive integrated moving average for statistical methodological analysis for forecasting the river flow. Based on the hydrological data collected from the water level of Kabul River in Swat, the water levels from 2011–2030 were forecasted, which were based on the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion as 9.216. It was concluded that the water flow started to increase from the year 2011 till it reached its peak value in the year 2019–2020, and then the water level will maintain its maximum level to 250 cumecs and minimum level to 10 cumecs till 2030. The need for this research is justified as it could prove helpful in establishing guidelines for hydrological designers, the planning and management of water, hydropower engineering projects, as an indicator for weather prediction, and for the people who are greatly dependent on the Kabul River for their survival.

【 授权许可】

Unknown