System Dynamics Aproach For Quantitative Risk Allocaion

International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Production Research

Farnad Nasirzadeh¹  Mostafa Khanzadi¹  Mahdi Rezaie² 

[1] Assistant Professor;M.Sc student;

关键词: Modeling;    risk allocation;    simulation;    system dynamics;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Allocation of construction risks between clients and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD)-based approach for quantitative risk allocation. Using the proposed SD based approach, all the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled. The contractor’s defensive strategies against the one-sided risk allocation are simulated using governing feedback loops. The full-impact of different risk allocation strategies may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time and cost by the proposed object-oriented simulation methodology. The project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation and the optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it has been implemented in a pipe-line project. The optimal risk allocation strategy is determined for the inflation risk as one of the most important identified risks.

【 授权许可】

Unknown