The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway

Weather and Climate Extremes

Jana Sillmann¹  Nathalie Schaller²  Malte Müller²  Kirien Whan³  Trine Jahr Hegdahl⁴  Gijs van den Oord⁵  Albrecht Weerts⁶  Timo Kelder⁷  Wilco Hazeleger⁸  Reindert Haarsma⁹ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway;Deltares, Postbus 177, 2600 MH Delft, the Netherlands;Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht, the Netherlands;Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK;Netherlands eScience Center, Science Park 140, 1098 XG Amsterdam, the Netherlands;Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Middelthuns Gate 29, 0368 Oslo, Norway;Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands;The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Postboks 43 Blindern, 0371 Oslo, Norway;

关键词: Storyline approach;    Atmospheric river;    Extreme precipitation;    Flood;    Climate change;    EC-Earth;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

We apply a physical climate storyline approach to an autumn flood event in the West Coast of Norway caused by an atmospheric river to demonstrate the value and challenges of higher spatial and temporal resolution in simulating flood impacts. We use a modelling chain whose outputs are familiar and used operationally, for example to issue flood warnings. With two different versions of a hydrological model, we show that (1) the higher spatial resolution between the global and regional climate model is necessary to realistically simulate the high spatial variability of precipitation in this mountainous region and (2) only with hourly data are we able to capture the fast flood-generating processes leading to the peak streamflow. The higher resolution regional atmospheric model captures the fact that with the passage of an atmospheric river, some valleys receive high amounts of precipitation and others not, while the coarser resolution global model shows uniform precipitation in the whole region. Translating the event into the future leads to similar results: while in some catchments, a future flood might be much larger than a present one, in others no event occurs as the atmospheric river simply does not hit that catchment. The use of an operational flood warning system for future events is expected to facilitate stakeholder engagement.

【 授权许可】

Unknown