Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

World Multidisciplinary Earth Sciences Symposium 2017

Malinowska, Miroslawa^1

University of Gdansk, Faculty of Oceanology and Geography, Institute of Geography, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, ul. Bazynskiego 4, Gdask

80-309, Poland^1

关键词: Annual trends;    Confidence levels;    Daily precipitations;    Dry and wet conditions;    Dry condition;    Extreme precipitation;    Linear regression methods;    Total precipitation;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/95/6/062012/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/95/6/062012

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm•d-1(R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95thpercentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm•d-1(R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95thpercentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.