Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study

Energies

Carolina de Mattos Affonso¹  David Barbosa de Alencar¹  Roberto Célio Limão de Oliveira¹  Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez²  José Carlos Reston Filho³  Jandecy Cabral Leite⁴ 

[1] Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Para—UFPA, Belém 66075-110, Brazil;Department of Industrial Engineering, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador 40170-115, Brazil;Department of Postgraduate Curses, IDAAM., Manaus 69055-038, Brazil;Department of Research, Institute of Technology and Education Galileo of Amazon—ITEGAM, Manaus 69020-030, Brazil;

关键词: wind power;    wind speed;    time series;    ARIMA;    forecasting;    wavelets;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en10121976

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Generation of electric energy through wind turbines is one of the practically inexhaustible alternatives of generation. It is considered a source of clean energy, but still needs a lot of research for the development of science and technologies that ensures uniformity in generation, providing a greater participation of this source in the energy matrix, since the wind presents abrupt variations in speed, density and other important variables. In wind-based electrical systems, it is essential to predict at least one day in advance the future values of wind behavior, in order to evaluate the availability of energy for the next period, which is relevant information in the dispatch of the generating units and in the control of the electrical system. This paper develops ultra-short, short, medium and long-term prediction models of wind speed, based on computational intelligence techniques, using artificial neural network models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and hybrid models including forecasting using wavelets. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological variables of the database of the national organization system of environmental data (SONDA), Petrolina station, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2017, were used. A comparison among results by different used approaches is also done and it is also predicted the possibility of power and energy generation using a certain kind of wind generator.

【 授权许可】

Unknown