Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 during the first five months in the Western Pacific Region

One Health

Calvin J. Chiew¹  Hideki Hashimoto²  Chi Tim Hung³  Tsz Yu Chow³  Eng Kiong Yeoh³  Ka Chun Chong³  Soonman Kwon⁴  Carrie Ho Kwan Yam⁵  Nancy Nam Sze Chau⁶  Weibing Wang⁷  Vernon J. Lee⁸  Chiu Wan Ng⁸ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore;Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Malaysia;School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;School of Public Health, Seoul National University, South Korea;School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, Japan;Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore;

关键词: COVID-19;    Case-fatality;    Reproduction number;    Western pacific;    Non-pharmaceutical;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

While most countries in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) had similar trajectories of COVID-19 from January to May, their implementations of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) differed by transmission stages. To offer a better understanding for an implementation of multidisciplinary policies in COVID-19 control, we compared the impact of NPIs by assessing the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 in different phases of the epidemic during the first five months in WPR. In this study, we estimated the piecewise instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) and the reporting delay-adjusted case-fatality ratio (dCFR) of COVID-19 in seven WPR jurisdictions: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan, Malaysia, Shanghai, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. According to the results, implementing NPIs was associated with an apparent reduction of the piecewise Rt in two epidemic waves in general. However, large cluster outbreaks raised the piecewise Rt to a high level. We also observed relaxing the NPIs could result in an increase of Rt. The estimated dCFR ranged from 0.09% to 1.59% among the jurisdictions, except in Japan where an estimate of 5.31% might be due to low testing efforts. To conclude, in conjunction with border control measures to reduce influx of imported cases which might cause local outbreaks, other NPIs including social distancing measures along with case finding by rapid tests are also necessary to prevent potential large cluster outbreaks and transmissions from undetected cases. A comparatively lower CFR may reflect the health system capacity of these jurisdictions. In order to keep track of sustained disease transmission due to resumption of economic activities, a close monitoring of disease transmissibility is recommended in the relaxation phase. The report of transmission of SARS CoV-2 to pets in Hong Kong and to mink in farm outbreaks highlight for the control of COVID-19 and emerging infectious disease, the One Health approach is critical in understanding and accounting for how human, animals and environment health are intricately connected.

【 授权许可】

Unknown