Comparative Epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnamese Live Bird Markets: Spatiotemporal Patterns of Distribution and Risk Factors

Frontiers in Veterinary Science

Kim B. Stevens¹  Dirk U. Pfeiffer²  Scott H. Newman³  Pawin Padungtod⁴  Ken Inui⁴  Pham T. Long⁵  Marius Gilbert⁷  Timothée Vergne⁸  Kate C. Mellor⁹  Doaa A. Elkholly⁹  Anne Meyer⁹  Guillaume Fournié⁹ 

[1] Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong;;College of Veterinary Medicine &Country Office for Ethiopia, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;Country Office for Vietnam, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Hanoi, Vietnam;Department of Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, Vietnam;Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France;Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium;UMR 1225 INRA, ENVT Interactions Hôtes – Agents Pathogènes (IHAP), University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France;Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, United Kingdom;

关键词: avian influenza;    epidemiology;    live bird markets;    poultry;    spatial modelling;    Vietnam;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fvets.2018.00051

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been circulating in Vietnam since 2003, whilst outbreaks of HPAI H5N6 virus are more recent, having only been reported since 2014. Although the spatial distribution of H5N1 outbreaks and risk factors for virus occurrence has been extensively studied, there have been no comparative studies for H5N6. Data collected through active surveillance of Vietnamese live bird markets (LBMs) between 2011 and 2015 were used to explore and compare the spatiotemporal distributions of H5N1- and H5N6-positive LBMs. Conditional autoregressive models were developed to quantify spatiotemporal associations between agroecological factors and the two HPAI strains using the same set of predictor variables. Unlike H5N1, which exhibited a strong north–south divide, with repeated occurrence in the extreme south of a cluster of high-risk provinces, H5N6 was homogeneously distributed throughout Vietnam. Similarly, different agroecological factors were associated with each strain. Sample collection in the months of January and February and higher average maximum temperature were associated with higher likelihood of H5N1-positive market-day status. The likelihood of market days being positive for H5N6 increased with decreased river density, and with successive Rounds of data collection. This study highlights marked differences in spatial patterns and risk factors for H5N1 and H5N6 in Vietnam, suggesting the need for tailored surveillance and control approaches.

【 授权许可】

Unknown