Development of Spatial Model for Food Security Prediction Using Remote Sensing Data in West Java, Indonesia

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

Tania Septi Anggraini¹  Fatwa Cahya Mustika¹  Kalingga Titon Nur Ihsan¹  Kamal Nur Fauzan¹  Ketut Wikantika²  Riantini Virtriana²  Budhy Soeksmantono²  Albertus Deliar²  Agung Budi Harto²  Anjar Dimara Sakti²  Akhmad Riqqi²  Deni Suwardhi² 

[1] Master Program of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha No.10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia;Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Sciences Research Group, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia;

关键词: food security;    food crisis;    spatial model;    CA-Markov;    MLR;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijgi11050284

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The food crisis is a problem that the world will face. The availability of growing areas that continues to decrease with the increase in food demand will result in a food crisis in the future. Good planning is needed to deal with future food crises. The absence of studies on the development of spatial models in estimating an area’s future food status has made planning for handling the food crisis suboptimal. This study aims to predict food security by integrating the availability of paddy fields with environmental factors to determine the food status in West Java Province. Food status modeling is done by integrating land cover, population, paddy fields productivity, and identifying the influence of environmental factors. The land cover prediction will be developed using the CA-Markov model. Meanwhile, to identify the influence of environmental factors, multivariable linear regression (MLR) was used with environmental factors from remote sensing observations. The data used are in the form of the NDDI (Normalized Difference Drought Index), NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), land surface temperature (LST), soil moisture, precipitation, altitude, and slopes. The land cover prediction has an overall accuracy of up to 93%. From the food status in 2005, the flow of food energy in West Java was still able to cover the food needs and obtain an energy surplus of 6.103 Mcal. On the other hand, the prediction of the food energy flow from the food status in 2030 will not cover food needs and obtain an energy deficit of up to 13,996,292.42 Mcal. From the MLR results, seven environmental factors affect the productivity of paddy fields, with the determination coefficient reaching 50.6%. Thus, predicting the availability of paddy production will be more specific if it integrates environmental factors. With this study, it is hoped that it can be used as planning material for mitigating food crises in the future.

【 授权许可】

Unknown