The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections

Econometrics

Michel Lubrano¹  Tareq Sadeq² 

[1] Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE, Ilot Bernard Dubois, 5 Bd Maurice Bourdet, 13001 Marseille, France;Department of Economics, Birzeit University, Birzeit, West Bank 627, Palestine;

关键词: Bayesian inference;    pseudo panels;    data augmentation;    walls;    poverty dynamics;   

DOI  :  10.3390/econometrics6020029

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

In 2002, the Israeli government decided to build a wall inside the occupied West Bank. The wall had a marked effect on the access to land and water resources as well as to the Israeli labour market. It is difficult to include the effect of the wall in an econometric model explaining poverty dynamics as the wall was built in the richer region of the West Bank. So a diff-in-diff strategy is needed. Using a Bayesian approach, we treat our two-period repeated cross-section data set as an incomplete data problem, explaining the income-to-needs ratio as a function of time invariant exogenous variables. This allows us to provide inference results on poverty dynamics. We then build a conditional regression model including a wall variable and state dependence to see how the wall modified the initial results on poverty dynamics. We find that the wall has increased the probability of poverty persistence by 58 percentage points and the probability of poverty entry by 18 percentage points.

【 授权许可】

Unknown