Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

Earth's Future

G. LeCozannet¹  M. Hemer²  T. Wahl³  L. Mentaschi⁴  M. I. Vousdoukas⁴  L. Feyen⁴  D. Lincke⁵  J. Hinkel⁵  P. J. Ward⁶  H. deMoel⁶  S. Muis⁶  R. S. W. van deWal⁷  J. L. Merkens⁸  A. T. Vafeidis⁸  C. Wolff⁸  M. Marcos⁹  R. J. Nicholls^1,10 

[1] BRGM Orléans France;CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart TAS Australia;Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering National Center for Integrated Coastal Research University of Central Florida Orlando FL USA;European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Ispra Italy;Global Climate Forum (GCF) Berlin Germany;Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam Netherlands;Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht and Department of Physical Geography Utrecht University Utrecht Netherlands;Institute of Geography Christian‐Albrechts University Kiel Kiel Germany;Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA) Palma Spain;Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich UK;

关键词: coastal flooding;    sea‐level rise;    extreme events;    uncertainty;    storm surge;    waves;   

DOI  :  10.1029/2020EF001882

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract This study provides a literature‐based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world‐regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea‐level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea‐level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio‐economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth‐damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea‐levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state‐of‐the‐art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth‐damage functions would be best reduced through open community‐based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.

【 授权许可】

Unknown