Formalization of a new stock trend prediction methodology based on the sector price book value for the Colombian market

Heliyon

Cardozo-Munar Carlos Eduardo¹  López-Rodríguez Campo Elias²  Monroy-Perdomo Leonardo³  Tena-Galeano José Luis⁴  Torres-Hernández Ana María⁵ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Business Administration Program of the Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios - UNIMINUTO, IDEAS Research Groups, Colombia;Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios - UNIMINUTO, IDEAS and ECONOMÍA SOLIDARIA Y DESARROLLO Research Groups, Colombia;Escuela de Economía Solidaria of the Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios - UNIMINUTO, Research Group Economía Solidaria y Desarrollo (Solidarity Economy and Development), Colombia;GECOEMPRESARIAL Research Group, Financial Administration Program of the Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios - UNIMINUTO, Colombia;

关键词: Capital markets;    Tobin's Q;    Financial markets;    Corporate valuation;    Trend analysis;    Innovation;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

As a financial indicator, Tobin's Q is related to making investment decisions based on the organization's market value related to the organization's replacement costs. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for predicting the trend of stock value based on the relationship between the fluctuation of Tobin's Q by sector as a trend index and the stock price variation of the Columbia stock market. To this end, a quantitative quasi-experimental survey will be conducted on shares traded by December 30, 2019. This is at least 90% of the time we have traded in the last 5 years. From the average Q value of the relevant economic sector, the value of each company's stock is adjusted to calculate the estimated price of the company's stock. If there is a disparity between the estimated value of the stock and the value at time t, you can forecast the stock price transition. If the computation yields a more significant result than what is now witnessed in the market, the next period's development will be positive; if it yields a lower result, its development will be negative. The results allow us to establish a significant influence of industry results on the performance of corporate Tobin's Q at the individual level. The significance level is greater than 50% in all cases, and profitability does not go below 30% in any sector, even reaching 100%. The methodology used in this study is essential to all investors tiny firms because it uses publicly available, freely available information, providing tremendous potential for safer non-business revenue.

【 授权许可】

Unknown