Scrutinizing Pork Price Volatility in the European Union over the Last Decade

Animals

Tomasz Schwarz¹  Pawel Mieczyslaw Bartlewski²  Elzbieta Jadwiga Szymanska³  Łukasz Satoła⁴  Katarzyna Utnik-Banaś⁴ 

[1] Department of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Ethology, University of Agriculture in Kraków, 24/28 Mickiewicza Avenue, 30-059 Kraków, Poland;Department of Biomedical Sciences, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada;Department of Logistics, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW, 166 Nowoursynowska Street, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland;Department of Management and Economics of Enterprises, University of Agriculture in Kraków, 21 Mickiewicza Avenue, 31-120 Kraków, Poland;

关键词: pork;    market;    price;    seasonality;    cyclical fluctuations;    time series;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ani12010100

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The aim of this study was to analyze the factors that can influence pork prices, particularly the effects of various types of fluctuations on the volatility of pork prices in the European Union as a whole market and individual EU countries. The research material consisted of monthly time series of pork prices collected from 2009 to 2020. These data originated from the Integrated System of Agricultural Information coordinated by the Polish Ministry of Agriculture. Information on global pork production volumes is from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database. Time series of prices were described by the multiplicative model, and seasonal breakdown was performed using the Census X-11 method. The separation of the cyclical component of the trend was performed using the Hodrick–Prescott filter. In 2019, pork production in the European Union totaled 23,954 thousand tonnes, which accounted for 21.8% of global pork production. The largest producers were Germany, Spain, and France, supplying more than half of the pork to the entire European Union market. Pork prices in the EU, averaged over the 2009–2020 period were Euro (EUR) 154.63/100 kg. The highest prices for pork were recorded in Malta, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Greece, whereas the lowest prices in Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. The breakdown of the time series for pork prices confirmed that, in the period from 2009 to 2020, pork prices exhibited considerable fluctuations of both a long-term and medium-term nature as well as short-term seasonal and irregular fluctuations. Prices were higher than average in summer (with a peak in June–August) and lower in winter (January–March). Overall, the proportions of different types of changes in pork prices were as follows: random changes—7.9%, seasonal changes—36.6%, and cyclical changes—55.5%.

【 授权许可】

Unknown