Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Frontiers in Plant Science

Jiali He¹  Chunya Wang¹  Niyati Naudiyal¹  Yan Wu¹  Ning Shi²  Narayan Prasad Gaire³  Jinniu Wang⁵  Yanqiang Wei⁶ 

[1] Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China;College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Department of Environmental Science, Patan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal;Key Lab of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, China;Mangkang Ecological Station, Tibet Ecological Safety Monitor Network, Chengdu, China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China;

关键词: Meconopsis punicea;    MaxEnt modeling;    habitat suitability;    ecosystem service;    climate change;    Qinghai-Tibet Plateau;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpls.2021.830119

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

【 授权许可】

Unknown