A 2D Real-Time Flood Forecast Framework Based on a Hybrid Historical and Synthetic Runoff Database

Water

Giampaolo Crotti¹  Jorge Leandro¹  PunitKumar Bhola¹ 

[1] Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21, 80333 Munich, Germany;

关键词: database;    flood forecast;    flood inundation map;    hydrodynamic models;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w12010114

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Operational real-time flood forecast is often done on the prediction of discharges at specific gauges using hydrological models. Hydrodynamic models, which can produce inundation maps, are computationally demanding and often cannot be used directly for that purpose. The FloodEvac framework has been developed in order to enable 2D flood inundations map to be forecasted at real-time. The framework is based on a database of pre-recorded synthetic events. In this paper, the framework is improved by generating a database based on rescaled historical river discharge events. This historical database includes a wider variety of runoff curves, including non-Gaussian and multi-peak shapes that better reflect the characteristics and the behavior of the natural streams. Hence, a hybrid approach is proposed by joining the historical and the existing synthetic database. The increased number of scenarios in the hybrid database allows reliable predictions, thus improving the robustness and applicability of real-time flood forecasts.

【 授权许可】

Unknown