Recalibrating the Non-Communicable Diseases risk prediction tools for the rural population of Western India

BMC Public Health

Gyanendra Singh¹  Pankaja Raghav²  Shaima Abdul Jabbar²  Vaishali Gautam²  Prem Prakash Sharma²  S. Srikanth²  Neeti Rustagi²  Ankit Mittal²  Pankaj Bhardwaj²  Suman Saurabh²  T. Prasanna²  Garima Singh²  Tooba Tanvir²  Pritish Baskaran²  Akhil Dhanesh Goel²  V.R. Rehana²  K.H. Naveen²  Yachana Choudhary²  Manoj Kumar Gupta²  S. Sridevi²  Amit Mehto³ 

[1] Department of Community & Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences;Department of Community Medicine & Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences;Veer Chandra Singh Garhwali Govt. Institute of Medical Science & Research;

关键词: NCD;    Diabetes;    Hypertension;    CVD;    IDRS;    CBAC;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-022-12783-z

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Background The aim of the present study was to recalibrate the effectiveness of Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) and Community-Based Assessment Checklist (CBAC) by opportunistic screening of Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and Hypertension (HT) among the people attending health centres, and estimating the risk of fatal and non-fatal Cardio-Vascular Diseases (CVDs) among them using WHO/ISH charts. Methods All the people aged ≥ 30 years attending the health centers were screened for DM and HT. Weight, height, waist circumference, and hip circumferences were measured, and BMI and Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR) were calculated. Risk categorization of all participants was done using IDRS, CBAC, and WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Individuals diagnosed with DM or HT were started on treatment. The data was recorded using Epicollect5 and was analyzed using SPSS v.23 and MedCalc v.19.8. ROC curves were plotted for DM and HT with the IDRS, CBAC score, and anthropometric parameters. Sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Accuracy and Youden’s index were calculated for different cut-offs of IDRS and CBAC scores. Results A total of 942 participants were included for the screening, out of them, 9.2% (95% CI: 7.45–11.31) were diagnosed with DM for the first time. Hypertension was detected among 25.7% (95% CI: 22.9–28.5) of the participants. A total of 447 (47.3%) participants were found with IDRS score ≥ 60, and 276 (29.3%) with CBAC score > 4. As much as 26.1% were at moderate to higher risk (≥ 10%) of developing CVDs. Area Under the Curve (AUC) for IDRS in predicting DM was 0.64 (0.58–0.70), with 67.1% SN and 55.2% SP (Youden’s Index 0.22). While the AUC for CBAC was 0.59 (0.53–0.65). For hypertension both the AUCs were 0.66 (0.62–0.71) and 0.63 (0.59–0.67), respectively. Conclusions IDRS was found to have the maximum AUC and sensitivity thereby demonstrating its usefulness as compared to other tools for screening of both diabetes and hypertension. It thus has the potential to expose the hidden NCD iceberg. Hence, we propose IDRS as a useful tool in screening of Diabetes and Hypertension in rural India.

【 授权许可】

Unknown