Environmental Determinism vs. Social Dynamics: Prehistorical and Historical Examples

World

Anastasios A. Tsonis¹  John Christy²  Andreas Angelakis³  Demetris Koutsoyiannis⁴  G.-Fivos Sargentis⁴ 

[1] Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA;Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, USA;HAO-Demeter, Agricultural Research Institution of Crete, 71300 Iraklion, Greece;Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources Development, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 9, 15780 Zographou, Greece;

关键词: water–energy–food nexus;    Minoan civilization;    sustainable development;    social structure;   

DOI  :  10.3390/world3020020

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Environmental determinism is often used to explain past social collapses and to predict the future of modern human societies. We assess the availability of natural resources and the resulting carrying capacity (a basic concept of environmental determinism) through a toy model based on Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics. We also highlight the role of social cohesion, and we evaluate it from an entropic viewpoint. Furthermore, we make the case that, when it comes to the demise of civilizations, while environmental influences may be in the mix, social dynamics is the main driver behind their decline and eventual collapse. We examine several prehistorical and historical cases of civilization collapse, the most characteristic being that of the Minoan civilization, whose disappearance c. 1100 BC has fostered several causative hypotheses. In general, we note that these hypotheses are based on catastrophic environmental causes, which nevertheless occurred a few hundred years before the collapse of Minoans. Specifically, around 1500 BC, Minoans managed to overpass many environmental adversities. As we have not found justified reasons based on the environmental determinism for when the collapse occurred (around 1100 BC), we hypothesize a possible transformation of the Minoans’ social structure as the cause of the collapse.

【 授权许可】

Unknown