A Modelization of the Propagation of COVID-19 in Regions of Spain and Italy with Evaluation of the Transmission Rates Related to the Intervention Measures

Biology

AitorJ. Garrido¹  Izaskun Garrido¹  Santiago Alonso-Quesada²  Jon Gabirondo²  Raul Nistal²  Manuel de la Sen² 

[1] Automatic Control Group (ACG), Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, Institute of Research and Development of Processes (IIDP), University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, 48013 Bilbao, Spain;Department of Electricity and Electronics, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, 48940 Leioa, Spain;

关键词: infectious disease;    epidemiology;    modelization;    digital health;    COVID-19;    global health;   

DOI  :  10.3390/biology10020121

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Two discrete mathematical SIR models (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) are proposed for modelling the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) through Spain and Italy. One of the proposed models is delay-free while the other one considers a delay in the propagation of the infection. The objective is to estimate the transmission, also known as infectivity rate, through time taking into account the infection evolution data supplied by the official health care systems in both countries. Such a parameter is estimated through time at different regional levels and it is seen to be strongly dependent on the intervention measures such as the total (except essential activities) or partial levels of lockdown. Typically, the infectivity rate evolves towards a minimum value under total lockdown and it increases again when the confinement measures are partially or totally removed.

【 授权许可】

Unknown