China’s Energy Transition Policy Expectation and Its CO2 Emission Reduction Effect Assessment

Frontiers in Energy Research

Xue Liu¹  Xiaodi Yang¹  Zhiyuan Zhang¹  Di Wang¹  Xinchen Wen²  Yueying Zhao³ 

[1] Center for Environmental Economics and Management Research, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China;School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China;School of Mathematics and Physics, Xuzhou University of Technology, Xuzhou, China;School of Mathematics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China;

关键词: China;    energy transition;    CO2 emission;    policy preassessment;    DID model;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fenrg.2020.627096

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Measuring the expected impact of China’s energy transition on carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation and identifying the key influencing factors in different economic sectors will help to provide better policy recommendations for CO2 emission reduction. Based on the prediction results of China’s CO2 emissions in 2030 under the baseline scenario and the target scenario, this study constructs the control group and the treatment group of the energy transition policy quasinatural experiment and then uses the difference in difference (DID) model to evaluate the CO2 emission reduction effect of China’s energy transition policy. The results reveal that the energy transition policy has a significant impact on CO2 emission reduction and helps to achieve China’s 2030 carbon emission reduction target. The impact of energy structure transition on CO2 emission reduction has significant sectoral heterogeneity, which has a positive reduction effect in the industry sector, wholesale and retail sectors, and accommodation and catering sectors, but its reduction effect is not obvious in transportation, storage, and postal sectors. It is suggested that China should implement the sector-differentiated CO2 mitigation strategy, focus on improving the industrial sector’s energy efficiency, and promote the clean, low-carbon transition of energy consumption structure in construction, transportation, storage, and postal industries.

【 授权许可】

Unknown