Recent progress on the seasonal tropical cyclone predictions over the western North Pacific from 2014 to 2020

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review

Se Hwan Yang¹  Eun-Jeong Cha²  Chang-Hoi Ho³  Yu Sun Hyun³  Il-Ju Moon⁴ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Meso-scale Meteorological Phenomenon Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korean Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Republic of Korea;National Typhoon Center, Korean Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Republic of Korea;School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea;

关键词: Tropical cyclones;    Seasonal prediction;    Western north pacific;    Statistical model;    Statistical–dynamical model;    Dynamical model;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This study summarized the procedure for the seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is currently operating at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Republic of Korea. The methodology was briefly described, and its prediction accuracy was verified. Seasonal predictions were produced by synthesizing spatiotemporal evolutions of various climate factors such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), monsoon activity, and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), using four models: a statistical, a dynamical, and two statistical–dynamical models. The KMA forecaster predicted the number of TCs over the WNP based on the results of the four models and season to season climate variations. The seasonal prediction of TCs is announced through the press twice a year, for the summer on May and fall on August. The present results showed low accuracy during the period 2014–2020. To advance forecast skill, a set of recommendations are suggested.

【 授权许可】

Unknown