Relationships between the seasonality of temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality: implications for climate based health forecasting

Climate Research

Glenn R. McGregor¹  Helen A. Watkin¹  Michelle Cox¹ 

关键词: Climate and mortality seasonality;    Climate-based health forecasting;    Seasonal prediction;    Ischaemic heart disease mortality;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr025253

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: The relationship between the seasonality of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and temperature is explored for the purpose of evaluating the climate-based predictability of the magnitude and timing of the annual IHD mortality peak for 5English counties. Seasonality is described by the amplitude (magnitude) and phase (timing) of the first harmonic of the annual cycle of IHD mortality and mean and minimum temperature. Study results reveal a positive association between the amplitude ofthe annual IHD mortality cycle and temperature seasonality such that years with an exaggerated mortality peak are associated with years characterised by strong temperature seasonality. Overall, the timing of the annual mortality peak is positivelyassociated with the timing of the lowest temperatures. Such findings provide some optimism for exploring the development of experimental climate-based health-forecasting models. This is because the simple climate-seasonality diagnostics presented hereprovide a fundamental source of predictability of the magnitude and timing of the annual IHD mortality peak.

【 授权许可】

Unknown