Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Pete eFalloon¹  Lan eHoang²  Suraje eDessai³  Andrew eChallinor³  Ann-Kristin eKoehler³  Jill eJohnson³ 

[1] Met Office Hadley Centre;University of Cambridge;University of Leeds;

关键词: Climate Change;    Decision Making;    uncertainty;    Ensembles;    climate impacts;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fenvs.2014.00033

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistical methods for assessing uncertainties, issues regarding model integration and complexity, and ways in which uncertainty frameworks can be used to inform adaptation decisions, with case studies focused on agriculture. Finally, we highlight future research needs and provide recommendations for making further progress.

【 授权许可】

Unknown