Evaluating China’s Passenger Vehicle Market under the Vehicle Policies of 2021–2023

World Electric Vehicle Journal

Jessey Bouchard¹  Xin He¹  Steve Przesmitzki²  Rujie Yu³  Shiqi Ou⁴  Zhenhong Lin⁴ 

[1] Aramco Services Company, Aramco Research Center-Detroit, 46535 Peary Ct, Novi, MI 48377, USA;Argonne National Laboratory, Energy Systems Division, Lemont, IL 60439, USA;China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Dongli District, Tianjin 300300, China;Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Buildings and Transportation Science Division, 2360 Cherahala Blvd, Knoxville, TN 37932, USA;

关键词: auto industry;    market dynamics;    electric vehicle;    vehicle policy;    modeling;    projection;   

DOI  :  10.3390/wevj12020072

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

China is well known for its determination on large-scale vehicle electrification, which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies mixed with the extensive charging infrastructure support and monetary incentives from the government. This study adopted the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model 2020 version, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in order to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation”, which is a revised version released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021–2023, the so-called dual credit policy (2021–2023). It was found that, under the dual credit policy (2021–2023), the sales of hybrid electric vehicles could reach 0.91 million by the end of 2023, which would increase much faster than they did in 2018–2020. The annual sales share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.7%, and the PEV stocks could achieve 11.70 million by the end of 2023 if it keeps the expansion to the level of how it was in 2017. In addition, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plug-in hybrid electric SUVs could be the most popular PEV types.

【 授权许可】

Unknown