Prognosis of lung cancer with simple brain metastasis patients and establishment of survival prediction models: a study based on real events

BMC Pulmonary Medicine

Chang Xu¹  Zhiyuan Cheng²  Junjie Wu³  Jiaying Yuan⁴  Yan Shang⁴  Qiang Li⁵  Gengxi Jiang⁶  Jian Feng⁷  Yi Wang⁸  Shicheng Guo⁸  Zixiu Zou⁸  Li Jin⁸ 

[1] Clinical College of Xiangnan University;Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine;Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Fudan University;Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shanghai Changhai Hospital, the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University;Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University;Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Changhai Hospital, the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Military Medical University;Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University;School of Life Sciences, Fudan University;

关键词: Lung cancer with simple brain metastasis;    Prognostic analysis;    SEER database;    Nomogram;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12890-022-01936-w

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to explore risk factors for the prognosis of lung cancer with simple brain metastasis (LCSBM) patients and to establish a prognostic predictive nomogram for LCSBM patients. Materials and methods Three thousand eight hundred and six cases of LCSBM were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015 using SEER Stat 8.3.5. Lung cancer patients only had brain metastasis with no other organ metastasis were defined as LCSBM patients. Prognostic factors of LCSBM were analyzed with log-rank method and Cox proportional hazards model. Independent risk and protective prognostic factors were used to construct nomogram with accelerated failure time model. C-index was used to evaluate the prediction effect of nomogram. Results and conclusion The younger patients (18–65 years old) accounted for 54.41%, while patients aged over 65 accounted for 45.59%.The ratio of male: female was 1:1. Lung cancer in the main bronchus, upper lobe, middle lobe and lower lobe were accounted for 4.91%, 62.80%, 4.47% and 27.82% respectively; and adenocarcinoma accounted for 57.83% of all lung cancer types. The overall median survival time was 12.2 months. Survival rates for 1-, 3- and 5-years were 28.2%, 8.7% and 4.7% respectively. We found female (HR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.75–0.87), the married (HR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.75–0.86), the White (HR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.84–0.95) and primary site (HR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.39–0.52) were independent protective factors while higher age (HR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.40–1.62), advanced grade (HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.12–1.25) and advanced T stage (HR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.13) were independent risk prognostic factors affecting the survival of LCSBM patients. We constructed the nomogram with above independent factors, and the C-index value was 0.634 (95% CI 0.622–0.646). We developed a nomogram with seven significant LCSBM independent prognostic factors to provide prognosis prediction.

【 授权许可】

Unknown