A dynamic model of profit ofresidential projects in Vietnam

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

Thanwadee Chinda¹  Nghia Hoai Nguyen² 

[1] Department of Civil and Electrical Engineering, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Room 801, 35-37 Ho HaoHon Street, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;School of Management Technology, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), ThammasatUniversity, 131 Moo 5, Tivanond Road, Bangkadi Industrial Park, Bangkadi Mueang, Pathum Thani 12000, Thailand;

关键词: dynamic model;    profit;    residential projects;    simulation;    system dynamics;   

DOI  :  10.3846/ijspm.2018.6274

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

It is difficult to estimate the profit of residential projects as there are a number of complicated relationships among key profit factors. This study develops a dynamic model of the profit of residential projects in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, utilizing a system dynamic approach, to examine the profit of residential projects in the long term. Five key profit factors, including the Urban Population, Buyer Capacity, Housing Supply, Housing Economics, and Housing Finance factors, are used to develop the dynamic model. Simulation results reveal that the average profit of residential projects in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, in the next 20 years, is 35%, with a minimum and maximum profit of 19% and 41%, respectively. Scenario analyses recommend that a 30% down payment, a 25-year payment period, and a debt to equity ratio of 40% are the best strategies that residential companies should use to maximize profit in the long term. It is also recommended that debt to equity ratio and house price should be maintained in the early years to assist low-income households. The developed model can be used as a starting point to develop a software that allows developers to examine strategies by simply inputting their available data.

【 授权许可】

Unknown