Tephra Fallout Hazard Assessment for VEI5 Plinian Eruption at Kuju Volcano, Japan, Using TEPHRA2

2nd Transdisciplinary Research on Environmental Problems in Southeast Asia

地球科学;生态环境科学

Tsuji, Tomohiro^1 ; Ikeda, Michiharu^1 ; Kishimoto, Hiroshi^2 ; Fujita, Koji^2 ; Nishizaka, Naoki^3 ; Onishi, Kozo^3

Shikoku Research Institute Inc, 2109-8, Yashimanisi-machi, Takamatsu

761-0192, Japan^1

Asia Air Survey Co. Ltd., Manpukuji, Kawasaki, Asao-ku

215-0004, Japan^2

Shikoku Electric Power Co. Inc, 2-5, Marunouchi, Takamatsu

760-8573, Japan^3

关键词: Hazard Assessment;    probabilistic study;    simulation;    Tephra fallout;    TEPHRA2;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012002/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012002

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Tephra fallout has a potential impact on engineered structures and systems at nuclear power plants. We provide the first report estimating potential accumulations of tephra fallout as big as VEI5 eruption from Kuju Volcano and calculated hazard curves at the Ikata Power Plant, using the TEPHRA2 computer program. We reconstructed the eruptive parameters of Kj-P1 tephra fallout deposit based on geological survey and literature review. A series of parameter studies were carried out to determine the best values of empirical parameters, such as diffusion coefficient and the fall time threshold. Based on such a reconstruction, we represent probabilistic analyses which assess the variation in meteorological condition, using wind profiles extracted from a 22 year long wind dataset. The obtained hazard curves and probability maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption were used to discuss the exceeding probability at the site and the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.