Assessment of the Future Climate Change Projections on Streamflow Hydrology and Water Availability over Upper Xijiang River Basin, China

Applied Sciences

卷:10

Tabinda Masud¹  Kaipeng Yang²  Muhammad Touseef²  Yan Wang²  Lihua Chen²  Muhammad Wajid Ijaz³  Aziz Khan⁴  Aamir Shahzad⁵ 

[1] Civil Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan;

[2] College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;

[3] Environmental Protection Agency, Lahore 54000, Pakistan;

[4] Key Laboratory of Plant Genetic and Breeding, College of Agriculture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;

[5] School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan;

关键词: SWAT model;    SUFI-2;    land use change;    climate change;    streamflow;    water yield;   

DOI  :  10.3390/app10113671

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Hydrological models are widely applied for simulating complex watershed processes and directly linking meteorological, topographical, land-use, and geological conditions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at two monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow predictions in the Upper Xijiang River Basin. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow and water yield of the Upper Xijiang River Basin using Arc-SWAT. The model was calibrated (1991–1997) and validated (1998–2001) using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2). Model calibration and validation suggest a good match between the measured and simulated monthly streamflow, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow predictions. Large negative changes of low flows are projected under future climate scenarios, exhibiting a 10% and 30% decrease in water yield over the watershed on a monthly scale. Overall, findings generally indicated that winter flows are expected to be affected the most, with a maximum impact during the January–April period, followed by the wet monsoon season in the May–September period. Water balance components of the Upper Xijiang River Basin are expected to change significantly due to the projected climate change that, in turn, will seriously affect the water resources and streamflow patterns in the future. Thus, critical problems, such as ground water shortages, drops in agricultural crop yield, and increases in domestic water demand are expected at the Xijiang River Basin.

【 授权许可】

Unknown