The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures : A quantitative exploration

Rob Dellinki ; Christine Arriolai ; Ruben Bibasi ; Elisa Lanzii ; Frank van Tongereni iOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: air pollution;    COVID-19;    climate change;    materials use;    general equilibrium;    land use change;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/123dfd4f-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government responses on the environment. It uses large-scale modelling to investigate the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040. These detailed economic impacts are linked to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use change. The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant: in 2020, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions dropped by around 7%. Environmental pressures related to agriculture observed a smaller drop in 2020. The reduction in the use of non-metallic minerals, including construction materials, reached double digits. From 2021, emissions are projected to increase again, gradually getting closer to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels as growth rates recover fully. But there is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental pressures of 1‑3%.