Urban Resilience of Shenzhen City under Climate Change

Atmosphere

卷:12

Jie Lu¹  Xin Su²  Zhiyong Yang²  Jiahui Lu²  Chuang Liu²  Chao Mei²  Weiwei Shao²  Jiahong Liu² 

[1] School of Geographical Sciences, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China;

[2] State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;

关键词: extreme precipitation;    temporal change;    CMIP6;    prediction;    urban resilience;    sponge city;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos12050537

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The Chinese government attaches great importance to climate change adaptation and has issued relevant strategies and policies. Overall, China’s action to adapt to climate change remains in its infancy, and relevant research needs to be further deepened. In this paper, we study the future adaptive countermeasures of Shenzhen city in the Pearl River Delta in terms of climate change, especially urban flood risk resilience. Based on the background investigation of urban flood risk in Shenzhen, this paper calculates the annual precipitation frequency of Shenzhen from 1953 to 2020, and uses the extreme precipitation index as a quantitative indicator to analyze the changes in historical precipitation and the impact of major flood disasters in Shenzhen city in previous decades. Based on the six kinds of model data of the scenario Model Inter-comparison Project (MIP) in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6), uses the Taylor diagram and MR comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the ability of different climate models to simulate extreme precipitation in Shenzhen, and the selected models are aggregated and averaged to predict the climate change trend of Shenzhen from 2020 to 2100. The prediction results show that Shenzhen will face more severe threats from rainstorms and floods in the future. Therefore, this paper proposes a resilience strategy for the city to cope with the threat of flood in the future, including constructing a smart water management system and promoting the development of a sponge city. Moreover, to a certain extent, it is necessary to realize risk transfer by promoting a flood insurance system.

【 授权许可】

Unknown