Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for Farm Performance Using Bio-Economic Models in Southwestern France

Sustainability

卷:12

Sandra Uthes¹  Nicole Schläfke¹  Peter Zander¹  Johannes Schuler¹  Magali Willaume²  Anthony Vermue²  Walter Rossing³  Roos Adelhart Toorop³ 

[1] Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany;

[2] Université de Toulouse, INRAE, UMR AGIR, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France;

[3] Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands;

关键词: climate change;    bio-economic models;    irrigation;    adaptation;    model comparison;    Southern France;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su12187528

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Regional impact studies are needed to explore possible adaptation options to climate change. We estimated impacts and adaptation options for future scenarios that feature different assumptions regarding climate, cropping pattern and access to irrigation with two bio-economic farm models. Farm profit, soil organic matter balance and labor input are used as indicators of farm performance. The difference between the baseline and the alternative configurations computed by models is referred as adaptation potential, indicative of the adaptation options including the corresponding changes in cropping patterns. Our results show that as long as there is sufficient access to irrigation water, there is little incentive to change current practices, as farming is at the economic optimum, has a positive soil organic matter balance and labor requirements can be met. Conversely, if irrigation is no longer possible, drastic impacts occur, causing a need to sustainably adjust on-going farm practices. Adaptation through changed crop selection reduced losses to some extent. We conclude that the use of bio-economic models can assist in evaluating the qualitative findings of participatory studies by quantitatively assessing possible climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Strong impacts of climate change, however, cannot be offset by changes in cropping patterns and need further adaptation measures.

【 授权许可】

Unknown