Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical

卷:53

关键词: covid-19;    coronavirus disease;    forecasting;    statistical models;    epidemiology;   

DOI  :  10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract:INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states.METHODS: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period.RESULTS:The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state.Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.

【 授权许可】

Unknown