Improving Early Warning System Indicators for Crisis Manifestations in the Russian Economy

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market and Complexity

卷:6

Alexander Sokolov¹  Izabella Elyakova²  Maksim Maramygin³  Natalya Nikitina⁴  Maria Volkova⁵  Alexander Semin⁶  Nikolay Kuznetsov⁷  Angelina Zekiy⁸  Мarina Vasiljeva⁹ 

[1] Department of Economics Theory, MIREA-Russian Technological University, 119454 Moscow, Russia;

[2] Department of Economics and Finance, North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, 677007 Sakha Republic, Russia;

[3] Department of Finance, Monetary Circulation and Credit, Ural State University of Economics, Yekaterinburg, 620144 Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia;

[4] Department of Financial Management and Financial Law, Moscow Metropolitan Governance Yury Luzhkov University, 107045 Moscow, Russia;

[5] Department of Industrial Logistics, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 105005 Moscow, Russia;

[6] Department of Strategic and Industrial Management, Ural State Mining University, Yekaterinburg, 620144 Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia;

[7] Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 125993 Moscow, Russia;

[8] Prosthodontics Department, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119146 Moscow, Russia;

[9] Top Management, Atlantic Science and Technology Academic Press, Boston, MA 01233, USA;

关键词: Russia;    economic crisis;    economy;    monitoring;    early warning indicators;    innovation;   

DOI  :  10.3390/joitmc6040171

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The study is aimed at determining the oscillators of crisis manifestations when the Russian economy tries to make transition to the path for accelerating technological development and forming an innovative economy. Short-term cycles were determined in the development of the Russian economy from 1995 to the first half of 2020 through the Fourier spectral analysis. Using the Granger test, causal relationships between the leading indicators of the economic crisis and the real GDP index in Russia were identified and substantiated. They reflect the influence of the key rate dynamics on the volume of lending, savings, investments, the yield on securities and the exchange rate; volumes of bank loans per the share of non-performing and bad loans and innovative development of the economy. Based on the constructed neural models of the oscillator influence on the level of real GDP in Russia, it was determined that the rapid growth of bank and mortgage lending, the devaluation of the ruble, a decreased volume of gross foreign investment and the level of innovative development predetermine crisis manifestations in the national economy. The lags of the influence of changes in the leading indicators of the economic crisis on the development of the economy were calculated. The results obtained can contribute to the effectiveness of the anti-crisis regulation strategy in Russia. They can serve as a basis for increasing the efficiency of long-term innovative development and creating appropriate conditions for increasing the scientific and technological potential of the country.

【 授权许可】

Unknown